Strong Loan Growth
Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year; commercial (corporate) lending led expansion, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, and now represents 63% of the loan portfolio.
Grupo Supervielle SA
· SUPV
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Summary
- Earnings Call Date:
- 2026-03-02
- Change Since:
- +4.24%
- Next Earnings Date:
- 2026-08-19
Earnings Call Sentiment
PositiveThe call presented a mix of operational resilience and near-term challenges. Highlights include strong loan growth (led by corporate lending), a materially stronger capital position (CET1 at 15.4%), a rebound in net financial income and NIM, improved core deposit traction, cost discipline and accelerating momentum at the digital brokerage (EOL). Offsetting these positives are a quarterly net loss driven by a 75% sequential increase in provisions, elevated net cost of risk (10.4% in the quarter), a rise in NPLs to 5.0%, and a 6% sequential decline in total deposits due to tactical deleveraging. Management provided constructive guidance for 2026 (loans, deposits, NIM, cost of risk and ROE) and signaled that provisioning trends may have peaked, supporting an optimistic outlook. On balance, operational progress and capital strength appear to outweigh near-term credit and macro pressures, supporting a cautiously positive outlook.
Company Guidance
Management guided to real loan growth of 25–30% (led by corporate lending, with peso loans expected to grow faster than dollar loans), deposit growth of 20–25% (peso deposits to drive the mix and tax-amnesty upside for dollar balances), an NPL ratio of 5–6% for the year with a temporary peak in 1Q26, net cost of risk of 6.0–6.5%, NIM of 14–16%, net fee income up ~5% in real terms, structural operating expenses broadly stable in real terms, ROE of 4–9% for 2026 (with sequential improvement expected and a path to double-digit ROE by year-end 2026 and high‑teens by 2027–28 under normalization), and an ending CET1 ratio targeted at 11–13%; these projections assume macro parameters of ~22.4% inflation, 3.7% GDP growth and an exchange rate of ~1,750 ARS/USD by end‑2026.
Capital Strength and Buffer
Common Equity Tier 1 ratio strengthened to 15.4%, up 220 basis points quarter-over-quarter, providing capacity to fund 2026 growth; management expects year-end CET1 of 11%–13% after planned loan expansion.
Margin Recovery and Improved Net Financial Income
Net financial income recovered to ARS 246 billion in the quarter, up 82% sequentially (1% YoY). Client net financial income increased 21% sequentially. Loan portfolio NIM improved 1.7 percentage points sequentially to 16.9%, market-related NIM rose to 26% from 11%, and peso cost of funds declined approximately 400 basis points.
Improved Funding Mix and Core Deposit Traction
U.S. dollar deposits increased 42% year-over-year and gained 60 basis points of market share. Core transactional balances strengthened (checking accounts +39% and retail savings +29% sequentially) supported by remunerated accounts for payroll and SMEs.
Operating Efficiency and Cost Discipline
Personnel expenses declined 6% sequentially; full-year structural expenses fell 9% in real terms, reflecting continued cost control despite seasonal and commercial initiatives.
InvertirOnline (EOL) Momentum
EOL delivered a strong quarter (bottom-line ~ARS 8.1 billion), with 2.1 million accounts, asset management growing to represent ~10% of brokerage fee revenues, successful new peso fund (~$30 million) and the firm's dollar fund ranking as the third largest in the country.
Constructive 2026 Guidance
Management guided to real loan growth of 25%–30%, deposit growth of 20%–25%, NIM 14%–16%, cost of risk 6%–6.5%, and full-year ROE 4%–9% with sequential profitability improvement expected through 2026.