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The call emphasized multiple operational and strategic wins — record annual volumes, large recontracting achievements (200,000 bpd), sanctioned and on-schedule projects (RFS IV, Wapiti, K3), export and LNG progress (50,000 bpd propane export access, Cedar LNG remarketing), and a clear 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range with a mid-point implying ~5% CAGR. Offsetting these positives were near-term financial pressures: Q4 adjusted EBITDA and earnings declines (-14% and -15% YoY), marketing headwinds (notably narrower NGL frac spreads and U.S. gas-driven volatility), higher operating and incentive costs, and a temporary peak in leverage in 2026 due to Cedar LNG capex. Overall, highlights and ongoing growth initiatives materially outweigh the near-term headwinds, which management expects to be transient and manageable.
Pembina guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion (the midpoint implies ~5% fee‑based adjusted EBITDA per‑share CAGR from 2023–2026) and said 2026 will be the peak investment year for Cedar LNG; Cedar is expected in service in late‑2028. Management expects year‑end proportionately consolidated debt/adjusted EBITDA of roughly 3.7–4.0x in 2026 (3.4–3.7x excluding Cedar LNG construction debt) and expects leverage to trend back toward the lower end of its 3.5–4.25x target range as projects enter service; it also noted a modest free‑cash‑flow deficit in 2026 with meaningful free cash flow projected in 2027 and beyond. For context, 2025 results included adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion, earnings of $1.694 billion, Q4 adjusted EBITDA of ~$1.075 billion and Q4 earnings of $489 million, Q4 adjusted cash flow from operations of $731 million ($1.26/share) and full‑year adjusted CFOA of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share); management said it can historically fund roughly ~$1.5 billion of annual investment from cash flow after dividends.
Q4 earnings of $489 million and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million ($1.26/share) in Q4. Full-year earnings of $1.694 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.289 billion; adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $2.854 billion ($4.91/share) and cash flow from operating activities of $3.301 billion ($5.68/share).
Record annual volumes across Pipelines and Facilities for 2025, up ~3% vs 2024. Q4 total Pipelines and Facilities volumes were 3.7 million boe/d, a ~1% increase vs prior-year quarter.
Multiple growth projects progressed on time and on or under budget: Wapiti expansion and K3 cogeneration are in commissioning (expected in weeks), RFS IV propane-plus fractionator at Redwater trending on time (expected online in Q2 2026).
In 2025 Pembina renewed and executed incremental contracts totaling over 200,000 barrels per day of conventional pipeline transportation capacity. Alliance Pipeline shippers elected a new 10-year toll option on ~96% of available capacity; Nipisi pipeline now fully contracted.
Announced Fox Creek-to-Namao Expansion (+~70,000 bpd) and two Northeast BC expansions (Birch-to-Taylor and Taylor-to-Gordondale). Combined investment across three expansions of approximately $625 million to address growing volumes in NE BC and Alberta.
Secured access to 50,000 bpd of competitive propane export capacity via a new 30,000 bpd LPG export agreement with AltaGas and Prince Rupert terminal optimization. Cedar LNG construction advanced (floating LNG vessel >35% complete); remarketed 1.5 mtpa of capacity to PETRONAS and Ovintiv, increasing expected financial contribution.
Under funding agreements PGI and producer customers expect to place approximately $725 million of new infrastructure into service throughout 2026, all supported by long-term take-or-pay arrangements.
Significant progress on Greenlight: secured required grid allocation (907 MW assigned), turbine delivery timing confirmed, completed land sale to potential customer, and targeting a final investment decision in Q2 2026 for a ~700–900 MW first phase with midstream-like long-term contracting potential.
2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $4.125 billion to $4.425 billion. Midpoint implies ~5% compound annual growth in fee-based adjusted EBITDA per share from 2023–2026. Year-end 2026 proportionately consolidated debt to adjusted EBITDA expected ~3.7–4.0x (3.4–3.7x excluding Cedar LNG debt).
Management reported strong safety and environmental performance that exceeded Pembina's internal 2025 targets and improved vs 3-year averages.
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Pembina Pipeline Corporation Q4 2025 Results Digital Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the call over to Dan Tucunel, Vice President of Capital Markets. Please go ahead.\\\
Thank you, Jade. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Pembina's conference call and webcast to review highlights from the fourth quarter of 2025. On the call today, we have Scott Burrows, President and CEO; and Cameron Goldade, Chief Financial Officer, along with other members of Pembina's leadership team. I would like to remind you that some of the comments made today may be forward-looking in nature and are based on Pembina's current expectations, estimates, judgments and projections. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see the company's management discussion and analysis dated February 26, 2026, for the period ended December 31, 2025, as well as the press release Pembina issued yesterday, which are all available online at pembina.com and on both SEDAR+ and EDGAR.
I will now turn things over to Scott.\\\
Thanks, Dan. Yesterday, we reported our fourth quarter results, which included earnings of $489 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.075 billion and adjusted cash flow from operating activities of $731 million or $1.26 per share. Fo...