February 5th, 2026

The call highlighted a clear acceleration in revenues and profits, strengthened three-year financial targets and a concrete plan to improve efficiency (including a structural support-function transformation and quantified AI benefits). Capital and asset-quality trends are constructive but the CET1 ratio remains below the 13% target and the Corporate Center / restructuring costs are a meaningful near-term drag. On balance, positive top-line momentum, delivered cost savings, and a credible medium-term profitability trajectory outweigh the near-term headwinds.

Company Guidance

BNP Paribas guided to continued momentum: Q4 revenues +8% (CIB +1% / +4.8% at constant scope, CPBS +5.5%, IPS +11% organic and ~+40% including AXA IM), net profit +28% to ~€3bn, CET1 12.6% (+10bps) with a 13% target (aiming to reach it by end‑'27 after a 30bps FRTB assumption), and a 2025 dividend per share of €5.16 (final €2.57). Management reconfirmed >7% earnings and 8% EPS CAGR for ’24–’26, targets 12% RoTE in ’26 and >13% in ’28 (and >10% earnings CAGR / sharper EPS CAGR for ’25–’28), expects to deliver a 1.5pp jaws effect, keep cost of risk below 40bps, and cut the cost‑to‑income ratio from ~58% to <56% by ’28 building on €3.5bn savings (completed by end‑’26) plus a new support‑functions program covering ~€15bn of costs with first benefits from ’27; they also expect AI benefits of ~€600m to date (rising to €750m by ’26), confirm a ≥60% payout (not less than 60% for ’27–’30), plan disposals to free 30–50bps of CET1, and have corporate‑center restructuring ~€800m and central costs ~€600m in 2026 (gross operating loss ≈€1.4bn).