February 26th, 2026

The call reflects a mixed but balanced picture: strong financial engineering and M&A-driven revenue growth, robust free cash flow generation, share repurchases and a healthy liquidity position are offset by meaningful organic volume declines, margin pressure and embedded price/cost headwinds. Management emphasizes disciplined cost actions, active M&A pipeline and confidence in synergy delivery, but the near-term outlook remains cautious given residential market headwinds.

Company Guidance

TopBuild guided 2026 sales of $5.925 billion to $6.225 billion (midpoint $6.075 billion) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.005 billion to $1.155 billion (midpoint $1.08 billion), assuming overall price and volume each down low-single digits, residential (≈52% of sales) down mid-single digits, commercial & industrial (≈48%) up low single digits, and $800 million–$850 million of revenue from recent M&A; the EBITDA outlook assumes a ~27% decremental on lower volumes, $55 million of price/cost headwinds, M&A EBITDA in the mid‑teens inclusive of $15 million of Progressive/SPI synergies (on track to meet or exceed 2‑year targets), quarterly sales of $1.4 billion–$1.6 billion with EBITDA margins of 16.5%–18.5% (Q1 weakest, Q3 strongest), interest & other of $143 million–$149 million, a tax rate of ~26%, capex of 1%–2% of sales, and working capital of 15%–17% of sales.